Palinological Puzzle

The Republican political machine suffered a bit of shock recently with the resignation of Sarah Palin from her position as Governor of Alaska, well over a year before the 2010 Gubernatorial Election. As a former vice-presidential candidate and a potential hope in the 2012 Presidential election her name has become a byword for catastrophic misjudgement - something demonstrated by the McCain campaign in selecting her, and something she herself demonstrated in a series of television interviews among other things. The public felt early on that an aging President paired with an attractive, but otherwise ill-equipped running mate was just one of that campaign's many problems.

As can be seen in the chart at right, Governor Palin's initial popularity with Alaskans began to decline shortly after assuming office at the start of 2007. Her peformance in the media during the 2008 Presidential campaign entirely failed to excite much in the way of "approval" for her, and a series of very public ethics investigations seem to have set the course for the bottom. Of course, she still had greater than 50% approval at her nadir, so it is clear she has a strong core that must have faith in her despite her many political missteps. One does not need to run a regression model to predict where this trend is likely to go in a single year.

It is too soon to tell if her recent and somewhat perplexing decision will sustain the momentum of her run for complete political oblivion. Certainly, her confused and rambling resignation speech suggests that yes, that is indeed her goal. One gets the impression that her experience in the political realm has left her bitter and resentful, and confused as to why everyone didn't like her.

There has been speculation that this might simply be a ploy to position herself vis-a-vis the 2012 Presidential Election. She herself as indicated that that is likely in the cards, but there has been in the past a Draft Palin campaign that still seems to have legs. Who knows? Perhaps after four years of trying to become an enlightened liberal democracy that makes separation of church and state a matter of policy, that seeks to address global issues in a proactive and constructive way with its international partners, that has begun to address some of the festering inequalities amongst its citizens, American voters will become sick of it and feel ready to regress once more.